Cool Heads always win in the long run
 
For anyone who has seen the Clint Eastwood movie 'Unforgiven', they will remember the scene in which Little Bill (the sheriff) was telling the reporter what it takes to be a good gun fighter. He said it is that you don't have to be the fastest or even the best shot, but the greatest gunfighters are always the ones who can keep a cool head when everyone around them is getting rattled. Investing is no different. The successful investors are always the ones who can keep a cool head when everyone around them is in a panic.
 
I have no idea when the tides will turn, but I know they will, and some of you can't hear that enough! The experts and practically everyone underestimated the credit crisis. No one could have foreseen or ever expected that the original "little" sub-prime mortgage problem which started to surface in the news in early 2007 would a year later grow to rattle global equity markets. As a result, September has proven to be one of those periods that tested every investor's courage.
 
Many of you may be wondering where you stand and whether you are still on track to achieve your long term goals. The biggest issue for most investors in a market like todays is liquidity. The question you need to ask is, "Do I have access to secure funds to meet my income needs over the next few months, or even years?" In other words, can you afford to wait it out until stock markets normalize?
 
I don't have to imagine how difficult it is for you to look at your statement and feel as though you are living in a bad movie, as right now we are all watching that same movie. The one benefit some of us have, that perhaps many of you do not, is we have seen this movie before. And as bad as it is, it does get better, and the ending is quite good. Provided you stick around to see it!
 
I spoke to you about market timing last week, and used the example of missing the 40 best days of the market.....let me try to put this in a different perspective for you. Imagine we were market timers, wouldn't now be the time you would at least be thinking about investing? Markets are at levels they haven't seen in 4 or 5 years.
 
Yes there are big problems that need to be worked through, and yes the world economy does appear to be slowing.... but the smart investors are beginning to buy.
 
Last week I spoke of  Warren Buffet buying into Goldman Sachs, since then he has done a similar deal with GE, and Wachovia is now in the midst of a take over (and potential bidding war), that may see their company bought by Wells Fargo, a company whose largest shareholder is......you guessed it Warren Buffet!  I have heard dozens of very smart investment mangers and business people say this is the worst financial crisis they have ever seen, but in the same breath, many are saying they are also seeing opportunities like they have never seen before! Which to me only goes to show you that old adage Crisis=Danger +Opportunity once again appears to be proving itself true. 
 
So if you were timing the market, it seems like a pretty good time to start buying? Or at least that's what the likes of Warren Buffet seem to believe. So why on earth would anyone want to get out?
We all know the answer... its fear; many people are only focused on the danger. I am here to help people understand the danger, while reminding them of the opportunity that others see. Warren Buffet is a good leading man; make sure you don't leave the movie before it gets to the good part.
   
Opportunistically yours,
 
Shari Molchan